Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Building a Complete Forex Trading System | ForexGen

So far, we have discussed a few simple indicators, but there is more to a complete trading system than an entry indicator. You need to know when to exit, either at a profit or a loss, and how to size your position.

To build a Forex system, we recommend that you purchase trading software such as Tradestation. Trading software typically has a programming language to allow you to build a trading system and backtest it against historical data. You also need a large amount of price data for backtesting. We selecting trading software, obtaining price data and backtesting elsewhere in this website.

Most trading software gives you the ability to automatically �tweak� values during testing to automatically find the optimum combination of parameters. Be careful with this feature � you are aiming to build a system that works well in real life conditions, not one that is tweaked to work only for the conditions that exist in your test data.

When you design a forex trading system, simpler is better. You should avoid using more variables than is necessary. If you use enough variables, you can overfit your model so that it appears to work very well in backtesting, however it will not work well in real life trading.

One other important consideration is related to data frequency. If you have access to daily data, you may not see some significant intraday movements. For example, a currency pair may open at 1.1125 and close at 1.1175, and your system may have decided to go long, so you buy at the open and sell at the close. That�s great, but how about if there was an announcement during the day and the market temporarily plunged to 1.015, before recovering?

Your system may have been stopped out, a long way from the expected stop loss due to market volatility and in reality may have recorded a loss rather than a healthy 50 pip profit. You need to take price movements within the day into account when designing your system.

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The fx trading strategy must have a positive expectancy| ForexGen


Expectancy is the average amount you expect to make for every trade placed, winning or losing. A system that wins 80% of the time but loses 10 times as much for a losing trade as it wins will eventually wipe out your trading account. You should never trade a system with negative expectancy. It is important to backtest your system before committing money to trading with it.

Think of trading like a casino. The casino may lose individual bets, but in the long term it always wins. Why? It has a house advantage. This means that it has a positive expectancy. The casino doesn’t gamble, that is for the gamblers. On average, it gains for every bet placed. That is what pays for the grand buildings. You need to build in a positive expectancy if you want to win.

ForexGen provides a unique online trading experience based on our intelligent online Forex trading package, the ForexGen Trading Station, including the best online trading system.