Wednesday, September 24, 2008

The fx trading strategy must have a positive expectancy| ForexGen


Expectancy is the average amount you expect to make for every trade placed, winning or losing. A system that wins 80% of the time but loses 10 times as much for a losing trade as it wins will eventually wipe out your trading account. You should never trade a system with negative expectancy. It is important to backtest your system before committing money to trading with it.

Think of trading like a casino. The casino may lose individual bets, but in the long term it always wins. Why? It has a house advantage. This means that it has a positive expectancy. The casino doesn’t gamble, that is for the gamblers. On average, it gains for every bet placed. That is what pays for the grand buildings. You need to build in a positive expectancy if you want to win.

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